Russia Influenced By 'False Belief' Ukraine Will Invade, UK Intelligence Says
Civilians and volunteers receive shooting training by members of Russian army, in Russia
Russia’s military is allegedly being influenced by the belief Ukraine could invade, according to the latest update from UK intelligence.
Recent explosions within Russia have caused a stir, considering the war has – up until this point – been fought on Ukrainian soil.
Ukraine has not publicly taken responsibility for the recent drone attacks on Russian military airbases.
Ukraine’s defence minister Oleskiy Reznikov just repeated a joke about cigarettes when asked about the strikes, saying: “Very often Russians smoke in places where it’s forbidden to smoke.”
But, the Kremlin seems alarmed by this new phase of the war, and fears what Ukraine may do next, according to the UK officials.
As the UK’s Ministry of Defence tweeted on Wednesday: “Russia has recently started extending defensive positions along its international border with Ukraine and deep inside its Belgorod region.”
The UK officials added: “There is a realistic possibility that the Russian authorities are promoting defensive preparations within internationally recognised Russian territory to burnish patriotic feeling.”
Since Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered the partial mobilisation of reservists, there have been media reports claiming up to 700,000 people have fled the country to avoid being called up.
While the Kremlin has denied these claims, independent Russian outlet OVD-Info believes there have also been 19,442 detentions since the invasion began from anti-war protesters.
Aside from trying to stir up pro-war sentiment, the MoD said the decision to create defensive structures on Russian land may come down to a particular “false” belief.
It claimed: “It probably illustrates some Russia decision-makers’ genuine (but false) belief that there is a credible threat of invasion by Ukrainian forces.
“Paucity in strategic assessment is one of the critical weaknesses in the central Russian government architecture: as highlighted by Russia’s original decision to invade Ukraine.”
Russia originally believed it could seize the whole of Ukraine in a matter of days; the war is now in its ninth month, and Kyiv’s successful counteroffensive reversed much of Moscow’s early land grabs.
Putin led the effort to invade Ukraine back in February
The MoD also concluded: “Impartial official analysis [in Russia] is almost certainly frequently undermined by a tendency toward group-think and politically expedient conclusions.”
It’s worth noting that the UK has previously warned that Putin is cracking down on Russian dissent, and anyone who opposes his regime.
Despite the string of failures for Russia recently, there is still no end in sight to the war.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that negotiations could only begin when Russia achieves its “special military operation”, the name Moscow has given to the invasion.
